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Originally Posted by strombad
That line illustrates why the "top 5" argument you're trying to make is useless. Top 5 picks are dependant on the quality of the draft, not just the quality of the player.
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Yes, that's why I'm not really concerned if we pick 1st or 5th this year as they are all roughly similar talent wise. Next year though, there is a huge drop off after #4. That's why I am hoping that we get one of those guys. It also helps that those 4 are also looking like star players like McKinnon/Drouin/Hall/Seguin, so that's why I am really hoping that we can snag one of them. They just are that good, and I would like to have Monahan have a Patrick Kane to his Jonathan Toews.
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It really doesn't matter if we don't pick top 5 next year. Championships are one by properly built teams, not high picks (just ask the Oilers).
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It does matter as we'll have a better shot at winning the cup down the road if we do. It's not the end of the world, but it would make things a lot easier. Also, Edmonton picked the worst time to suck. Yakupov and RNH are not very good for #1 overall picks. Their drafts were not very good. Also the Oilers have the worst scouting abilities in the league. All their other picks have been garbage.
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Seguin played a minor role in Boston's win, Detroit had none, Tampa had mid-late round picks playing just as well as Lecavalier, Doughty was far from the most dominant player on the team, and Ryan didn't even participate.
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Seguin did play a role though, and contributed. If he wasn't there, they might have not won, it's too hard to tell. Even in a depth role, he did help. Tampa had Boyle, St. Louis and Richards playing awesome in 04, but if they didn't have Lecavalier they wouldn't have likely made it to the finals let alone win and Doughty was one of the Kings most important players. They don't even make the playoffs without him, let alone win. I did misremember with Ryan.
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Whether a pick is top 5 or top 10, it makes little difference. It's picks 30-200+ that make the difference. If Calgary wins a cup in the next decade it won't be the Monahans that win it, it'll be the Brodies, the Boumas, and the Backlunds.
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It makes a huge difference when there are star calibre players 1-4 and then mid round pick guys from 5 on. It's like getting Baertschi vs getting Duchesne or Seguin or even possibly another Crosby (McDavid).
That said, if you don't have a supporting cast to surround those guys, it won't help much. Look at the Isles. However, the Flames have a lot of that cast in the organization already. That's why I'd like them to get some flash to go along with the depth.