According to simulations done after the fact, if they had turned around immediately, they were about 50/50 to be able to land safely back at the airport, but that also with pilots who know exactly what the situation was and were told to turn around immediately. But their first reaction isn't to immediately turn around, it's to restart the engines. The 30 seconds it took them to figure out that the engines weren't going to restart made the river landing that Sullenberger attempted the only option.
Lucky for everyone, the conditions to attempt a water landing were close to perfect, as putting the plane down had to be nearly perfect.
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