Quote:
Originally Posted by Husky
I think tsi quite simple, you are over thinking it. At the end of the day a team in baseball will win more games in a season (IE be successful) when they consistently make it on base (regardless of how they get there) vs not making it on base. Easiest way to get on base is through singles/doubles.
So the more quality prospects you have (does not have to be home runs, the better). As weve seen in trade history, there are always teams down the road willing to trade a single quality player for a collection of quality players who may not have the same ceiling. IE a home run player for 3 singles base hit players.
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The problem with this analogy is that it's extremely rare, if not impossible, to trade a bunch of "base hit" players to get a "home run" in return.
Look at the top 30 centres in the NHL this year by points:
http://www.nhl.com/ice/playerstats.h...rt=points&pg=1
There are some players listed as centres who aren't playing centre this year (like Hudler, who has taken 14 faceoffs all season), but it's good enough to make my point.
Of those 30 players, 23 of them are playing for the team that drafted them, and 16 were first round picks of their current team.
Of the 7 who aren't with their drafting team: three were the Bruins top picks - Thornton, Kessel, and Seguin - who were traded away; 2 were Wings picks (Hudler and Filppula) who were replaced from within and let go as free agents; Turris, who had his much-publicized difficulties with the Coyotes; and Bonino, who was traded to Anaheim without ever playing a game with the Sharks.
From the top 15 on the list: only Pavelski and Benn were not first round picks; and only Thornton, Kessel, and Seguin are not with their drafting team.
Now, let's take an example package of Backlund, Bouma, Brodie, and Reinhart. It can be argued that some of them may be more than a "base hit", but I'm sure most of us would agree that they're all at least a "base hit" for the purpose of this discussion.
Is there any one of the top 15 "home run" players who you could get in return for those 4 Flames "base hits"?
Pretty much the only way to get an elite first line centre is either to draft him, or hope the Bruins get annoyed at some prospect and decide to move him (and that's not always a cheap option).
We've seen so many "safe" picks who never panned out, or developed into the third or fourth liners they were expected to, that I have no problem with the team trying to swing for the fences, knowing there are going to be some strike outs along the way.