Quote:
Originally Posted by 19Yzerman19
What you're describing is exactly the point of these so-called "advanced" stats. You're describing internal, random events within a game. What possession numbers are designed to do is to track much larger sample sizes (an entire season) of much larger sets of events (shots instead of goals). And yes, many of these stats do take into account things like playing against the fourth line - quality of competition is a very frequently used stat, and will often be combined with possession to adjust a player's possession statistics to account for how good the players he plays against are.
These guys aren't stupid, if you've thought of a flaw in the methodology that seems obvious to you, they've probably also thought of it and either tested it and found that it doesn't actually impact the results, or they've tried to find a way to account for it.
No. The Oilers are a terrible possession team. They're 27th in the league. Why would it lead you to build that team? If I'm taking over as GM and want to improve the team I've just inherited from the perspective of puck possession, I'd probably sign guys who are a) good at it, and b) see their teams generate more shots when they're on the ice as opposed to when they're on the bench. There are lots of ways to look at this; pure fenwick, WOWY (measuring whether a player does better or worse with or without a particular teammate), Corsi Rel, etc. In other words, I'd probably sign guys like Justin Williams and Logan Couture.
|
I'm talking in general terms. Yes... the Oilers are a terrible puck possession team. But if I was sitting at the draft table all of those years and trying to build a puck possession team would you not pick guys like Hall and RNH?
When you've got years of stats, you might be able to find guys with good Corsi's but when you're at the draft table picking 18 year olds you don't have those numbers.