Quote:
Originally Posted by Dagger
It's funny you write that because Twain wrote that in regards to politics and now you have Nate Silver going 50/50 in the Presidential election and 31/33 in the Senate election. So in fact that quotes origins can be said to be incorrect.
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1. You are attributing it incorrectly. Twain was referring to politicians using statistics to bolster weak arguments ie saying Marc-Andre Bergeron is the 2nd best dman in the league last year and using Corsi to prove it.
2. You are saying that the one instance of Nate Silver predicting all the states correctly in an election disproves a quote (one that shouldn't even be applied to the situation you are using to disprove it). You must not understand that in science and statistics something has to be repeatable in order for it to be accepted. Silver didn't do so hot in predicting the 2010 mid term elections. Which one is the anomaly? He's predicted 3 elections. you can't extrapolate any significant data from a sample size of 3.