Quote:
Originally Posted by $ven27
May be a stupid question, but why is it that picking the Dman in the top of the draft is such a risk compared to the forwards? Is it simply because their game is harder to translate to the NHL level?
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It's a very good question.
IMO, a significant factor is that defense - particularly at the NHL level - is more of a learned skill, whereas forwards can rely more on their talent with less to 'learn'.
If so, projecting forwards is more about their skill-set, which is pretty evident, even at 18. Sure, things will change and some guys will develop more, but talented players typically remain talented.
However, despite the fact that they have the tools (like an Ekblad for example) you still have a significant learning curve before they become a top pairing D-man. That is way harder to predict. It also takes more time, and the longer the time frame, the more difficult the projection.
Of course, there are some defensemen that rely mostly on their skills, such as Letang or Karlsson, but IMO they are more the exception than the norm