[Senator Clay Davis]

The outstanding Zach Lowe breaks down the Raptors current predicament

Winning a title in the NBA generally requires a top-10 or top-15 overall player. The Raptors don't have such a player. DeRozan gets better every season, but he's 24, putting up an above-average Player Efficiency Rating for the first time in his career. Ross is intriguing, but he's not going to be a star. Valanciunas has the best shot of reaching franchise-player status among Toronto's young core, but he hasn't shown those kind of signs yet. (He's only 21.)

The best way to acquire such a player is to draft him, and the best way to do that is to pick at or near the top of the right draft. That's why teams still tank today. Tanking doesn't always work, but for a certain species of team and ownership group, it can be the quickest and easiest way to transform a franchise. That's why Toronto thought about it, and why it might do so again if this run turns out to be fool's gold. The wins in Dallas and Oklahoma City were impressive, but the Raptors caught Oklahoma City on a back-to-back after a draining win over the Spurs. The rest of the recent wins have come against tankers or mediocrities, including a back-to-back sweep of the sad-sack Knicks. The Raptors have also had almost perfect health the entire season; what happens if a key cog gets hurt? Are these new Raptors for real? Is anything real in the Eastern Conference?

The Raps play Indiana and Miami three times combined in the next 10 days, and the schedule after that eases into a series of games against the kind of average-or-worse teams Toronto must beat in order to snag the no. 4 seed and win a playoff round. The Raptors will learn a lot about themselves over that stretch, and they'll watch how the trade market evolves — in both directions. The Raptors could turn into buyers, using Ross as the linchpin to net one of the many proven veterans playing on rebuilding teams. One such veteran, Arron Afflalo, is a former Ujiri guy who plays for a team that values Ross highly, per several league sources. There are lots of other potential targets out there, though things would get much more complicated if the Raptors work to unload either Landry Fields or Steve Novak in any "buy now" trade talks.

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