Quote:
Originally Posted by sharkov
Despite having an obsolete military, North Korea will go to war with the South as all the hype given to their military over the years will go tho their heads. From my experience, Koreans have obnoxiously high opinions of themselves and an overinflated sense of entitlement leading them to believe their own BS and other BS that other people feed to them. This lead to fantasies about military conquests. I'm guessing the leaders of North Korea behave the same way.
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Most of the members of the general staff in North Korea are in a tough position, they have the latest intelligence on South Korean Military capabilities and TOE. Kim knows it as well, he knows that an open war is suicidal for him.
Why I said the senior members are in a tough spot is because of the brutal dicipline in the North Korean Peoples Army. They know that if they get an order that they're going to eventually lose, they understand the forces involved. They also know that if they refuse the order to go to war they they'll die. They also know if they start losing that they'll die and be replaced by someone more politically reliable.
But the guys at the top know that the day of reunification by force are over, its a war that they can't win, the mathmatics don't support it.
Kim will continue to follow his fathers and grandfathers playbook and bluster and threaten and occasional get the military to shoot something in order to wring concessions out of a West that believes that they are an irrational state.
The North Korean government in a lot of ways is more rational then its being credited for.
I think one reported described Kim Jong Il as crazy like a fox.