EDIT: Looking at the LA TImes Electoral Vote Tracker, they have Bush at 177 electoral votes, Kerry at 153 and 208 up for grabs. They have Kerry with a big 47-38 lead in Florida which is a state they say is up for grabs.
Right. The first map just shows the states where the candidates have big leads. You can create your own scenarios and award each state to one or the other. When I did so based on who was leading the poll in each state I got Kerry with 177 (New Hampshire being the only state even). This is the first time during this election that I have Kerry winning. Not an exact science, but Florida going to Kerry is the biggest development. I think all the black voters that were disenfranchised in Florida in 2000 are coming out strong for the Democrats in 2004.
Looking at
www.electoral-vote.com, I notice Bush has lost much of the big lead he had in Colorado (9 electoral votes).