Quote:
Originally Posted by Oling_Roachinen
It's not really black and white. Mirtle's arriving at the 69M cap by having an increase HRRR increase by 10% between 2014-2015 and 2015-2016, followed by a 7% increase, and than an increase by 5% both seasons after that.
For ticket, food sales, parking etc to result in the same % increase it would require nearly a 7% increase annually in those 4 years. Those are hefty hefty numbers. Maybe a team like the Islanders turning it around and with the new arena could account for a big increase in the numbers but if we're going with the struggling teams continue to struggle argument, it's the difference between paying $15 for parking and $20 at the Dome, $100 dollar ticket and a $130 dollar ticket. While scalped tickets have gone up in prices, the face-value of tickets in Toronto going up 2.5% was a big enough deal to warrant a news report.
So while revenue climbs from 3B to 5B that additional 2B in revenue may not (almost certainly) wont stay proportionate to the current spit vs non-split revenue stream. Throw in the revamped revenue sharing which is 6% of the HRRR, (and at 5B that's 300M) distributed among the teams losing money and they may not be any worse off if the salary floor rises. When Phoenix filed for bankruptcy they reported that they had a higher revenue result from revenue sharing than ticket sales! When the new owners bought the Coyotes it was after the CBA made them fully eligible for revenue sharing which today could be as much as 20M. By the time the revenue reaches the 5B that results in 70M floor, an increase of 20M from today, there's a legitimate chance that bottom teams could be bringing in as much as 40M from revenue sharing making up for the increased floor.
However, again, if they are in the red now it's not like they would be climbing out of it without major changes. I think it will remain much closer to status quo than not with a bit more room for team disparity but about what we're use to today. Teams that continuously lose money will continuously be rumoured for relocation like today, might even happen (especially with Phoenix's out clause) like when the Trashers moved, but it's not like in 2017 half the teams will be packing up and moving.
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Using your numbers above, with $5B in HRR, $300MM in revenue sharing and a cap floor of $70MM, you're still not going to see much money getting shared among the teams in need. Especially as that cap floor rises, more and more teams will need to tap into revenue sharing. If some teams are only deriving gate driven revenue on (let's say) < 8000 fans, and that list is going to keep growing, those teams are not going to be sustainable in the slightest.