[Oling_Roachinen]

I'm not a fan of Ciera but I don't think her decision was particularly wrong.
I think the choice came down to pretty much:

Go with Tyson and Gervasse, who look to be super close, and have Monica be the fourth tag along member.
Or
Go with Hayden and Caleb, who look to be super close, and have Katie be the fourth tag along member.

With the x-factor being redemption island and at this point it's only going to be to the benefit of herself or Katie.

I think with the edits it's easy to see Tyson as the evil mastermind from this perspective but would she have faired any better going up against the, apparently, very likable Hayden and Caleb? Hayden happens to also be the only winner of a reality TV show at this point. Despite everyone saying Katie was a threat, she's pretty much useless, probably a lot easier making Monica and her many individual immunity wins look like a bigger threat if she can't break up Tyson and Gervasse.

As for the ramification of jury votes, despite Hayden and Caleb trying to break the alliance by voting out Tyson they think Ciera was untrustworthy for sticking the alliance. And if she didn't go to Tyson he would have likely gave Hayden/Caleb the credit for taking him down. She's in a bit of damned if she does damned if she doesn't situation here but at the end of the day one of the people she needs to get out is out, the idol was flushed, the biggest threat is still in the game (that's not necessarily good or bad) and Caleb probably has a weaker chance against her mother on redemption island.