Calgarypuck Forums - The Unofficial Calgary Flames Fan Community - View Single Post - [Rumour] Dreger: Backlund is available. Garrioch: Shane O'Brien available too

Calgary4LIfe · 11-25-2013, 06:05 PM

There was a bit of arguments back and forth on the "Flames Exploring Trade Options" thread that was a bit off-topic there, and feel this post is better suited here.

Some advanced stats comparing Colborne with Backlund - so people who roll their eyes and hate this, just skip this post please - would rather not have an argument about the merits of advanced stats in itself, but rather how the two players (Colborne and Backlund) compare to one another in terms of Advanced Metrics:

LINK TO ALL FORWARDS ON CALGARY

Let me preface this argument with the fact that I don't profess to have an intimate knowledge of advanced stats. I am sure there are gurus here who could really explain a lot more of it (and correct me if I was wrong on any interpretations here). I think advanced stats help to pain the picture - helps to reduce bias a little bit (why is it that some people love a certain player on the team, while others can't stand him? We are ALL guilty of this a little bit I think, as I have my own personal favorites and biases - Backlund included).

Colborne and Backlund are both tied with 7 points each through 22 games. Seems pretty even, while discounting Backlund's minutes on the PK.

However, what I find telling when browsing through the advanced stats is this:

Player: Offensive Zone Start: Offensive Zone Finish:
Backlund 45.3% 55.0%
Colborne 57.9% 57.2%

So, what does this tell us?

Backlund is NOT being as sheltered as Colborne, and is being put into situations where it is vastly more difficult to generate offence.

Backlund is sent over the boards for far more defensive zone starts. However, when this is happening, the puck finishes in the offensive zone more often than not - the 2nd highest on the team (just behind David Jones in terms of positive increase). Impressive, actually.

Colborne on the other hand, gets the bulk of the offensive zone starts. Common sense indicates that it should be much easier for Colborne to generate offence if he is actually starting in the offensive zone. What is nice to see here, is that although Colborne is without a doubt being sheltered a bit and given a much more substantial advantage at generating offence, there is only a very slight drop in the offensive zone finishes - meaning he is defensively keeping his head above water.

Let's take a look at CORSI:
Backlund: -3.41
Colborne: -9.25

This metric tells us that more shots are being fired at Calgary's net than the opposition's net. However, the difference is 3x as much when comparing these two heads-up. Defensively, Backlund does a much better job (and I think even the posters who don't like Backlund much can see with their own eyes that Backlund is a very sound defensive player).

CORSI QofC:
Backlund: 2.366
Colborne: 1.927

Backlund is facing harder opponents, which adds to the 'harder minutes' side of the argument, and why it is more difficult to produce. However, the difference here isn't great enough to justify much of a difference in points, however. Though Backlund does play against harder competition, it is not significantly harder, but statistically it should factor into a point total over the course of a season (insignificant for a smaller sample size at this stage comparing the two here). However, given that he is playing against SLIGHTLY better opponents, and still having better advanced stats while being tied in points further emphasizes (to me anyways) that Backlund is actually doing better than Colborne.

What is not encouraging for Colborne is that a guy who is playing much harder minutes against better competition and in a position where generating offence is much more difficult - they are tied.

I am not saying that Colborne is not (or will not be) a good player. I actually think better of him than just after the Flames acquired him. However, he hasn't exactly beat Backlund out in any facet of the game itself.

This looks more like the organization doing one of 3 things to me:

1) Showing a preference for the 6'5" center, and trying to make him succeed and develop faster. Nothing wrong with that, as like they say - "You can't teach size".
2) Challenging Backlund to perform better. Perhaps challenging Backlund by giving him more adversity is what the organization feel is required.
3) The organization has soured somewhat on Backlund, and he is indeed on his way out.

The only thing at this point that Colborne has over Backlund statistically is size. I am not saying I disagree with what the Flames are doing - if they feel Colborne has more upside in his much larger frame, then so be it. I think we as fans would all prefer huge talented centers down the middle, huge wingers, huge defencemen, and huge goalies (as long as skill and speed are equal of course).

However, this is just illustrating that in no way is Colborne offensively out-performing Backlund, ESPECIALLY given such a simple thing like Zone Start and Finish.

Once again, I am NOT an expert on advanced stats. People who are can tell me if I am cherry-picking stats here, or misinterpreting them, and can hopefully correct me if needed.

Based only on my eyes, I prefer Backlund's game NOW. I think he is a more effective player, is a much faster player, and much more persistent. His offensive capabilities SEEM higher to me (seems to have more puck skills), but it is not exactly translating (though advanced metrics helps share some insight as to possibly why). He also has a much better shot than Colborne.

However, I really think that Colborne could very well be a much more valuable piece moving forward. He seems to be developing, doesn't seem to have any particular weaknesses that can't be worked on, is playing much more aggressively now than he started off the season being, and just has that wonderful size.

In the end, I hope they keep Backlund and trade Stajan. Though Stajan has been better in the last 2 seasons, he just isn't a long-term solution here. I don't think he is strong enough to shoulder the burden either on the top line. I would much rather have an exposed Backlund on the top line (who plays tough minutes and is generally a pretty good defensive presence) who still has possible room to further develop his game.

I generally don't see this as a Colborne vs Backlund situation. It should be a Backlund vs Stajan situation if you ask me.

11-25-2013, 06:05 PM	#348
Calgary4LIfe Franchise Player Join Date: Jun 2010 Exp:	There was a bit of arguments back and forth on the "Flames Exploring Trade Options" thread that was a bit off-topic there, and feel this post is better suited here. Some advanced stats comparing Colborne with Backlund - so people who roll their eyes and hate this, just skip this post please - would rather not have an argument about the merits of advanced stats in itself, but rather how the two players (Colborne and Backlund) compare to one another in terms of Advanced Metrics: LINK TO ALL FORWARDS ON CALGARY Let me preface this argument with the fact that I don't profess to have an intimate knowledge of advanced stats. I am sure there are gurus here who could really explain a lot more of it (and correct me if I was wrong on any interpretations here). I think advanced stats help to pain the picture - helps to reduce bias a little bit (why is it that some people love a certain player on the team, while others can't stand him? We are ALL guilty of this a little bit I think, as I have my own personal favorites and biases - Backlund included). Colborne and Backlund are both tied with 7 points each through 22 games. Seems pretty even, while discounting Backlund's minutes on the PK. However, what I find telling when browsing through the advanced stats is this: Player: Offensive Zone Start: Offensive Zone Finish: Backlund 45.3% 55.0% Colborne 57.9% 57.2% So, what does this tell us? Backlund is NOT being as sheltered as Colborne, and is being put into situations where it is vastly more difficult to generate offence. Backlund is sent over the boards for far more defensive zone starts. However, when this is happening, the puck finishes in the offensive zone more often than not - the 2nd highest on the team (just behind David Jones in terms of positive increase). Impressive, actually. Colborne on the other hand, gets the bulk of the offensive zone starts. Common sense indicates that it should be much easier for Colborne to generate offence if he is actually starting in the offensive zone. What is nice to see here, is that although Colborne is without a doubt being sheltered a bit and given a much more substantial advantage at generating offence, there is only a very slight drop in the offensive zone finishes - meaning he is defensively keeping his head above water. Let's take a look at CORSI: Backlund: -3.41 Colborne: -9.25 This metric tells us that more shots are being fired at Calgary's net than the opposition's net. However, the difference is 3x as much when comparing these two heads-up. Defensively, Backlund does a much better job (and I think even the posters who don't like Backlund much can see with their own eyes that Backlund is a very sound defensive player). CORSI QofC: Backlund: 2.366 Colborne: 1.927 Backlund is facing harder opponents, which adds to the 'harder minutes' side of the argument, and why it is more difficult to produce. However, the difference here isn't great enough to justify much of a difference in points, however. Though Backlund does play against harder competition, it is not significantly harder, but statistically it should factor into a point total over the course of a season (insignificant for a smaller sample size at this stage comparing the two here). However, given that he is playing against SLIGHTLY better opponents, and still having better advanced stats while being tied in points further emphasizes (to me anyways) that Backlund is actually doing better than Colborne. What is not encouraging for Colborne is that a guy who is playing much harder minutes against better competition and in a position where generating offence is much more difficult - they are tied. I am not saying that Colborne is not (or will not be) a good player. I actually think better of him than just after the Flames acquired him. However, he hasn't exactly beat Backlund out in any facet of the game itself. This looks more like the organization doing one of 3 things to me: 1) Showing a preference for the 6'5" center, and trying to make him succeed and develop faster. Nothing wrong with that, as like they say - "You can't teach size". 2) Challenging Backlund to perform better. Perhaps challenging Backlund by giving him more adversity is what the organization feel is required. 3) The organization has soured somewhat on Backlund, and he is indeed on his way out. The only thing at this point that Colborne has over Backlund statistically is size. I am not saying I disagree with what the Flames are doing - if they feel Colborne has more upside in his much larger frame, then so be it. I think we as fans would all prefer huge talented centers down the middle, huge wingers, huge defencemen, and huge goalies (as long as skill and speed are equal of course). However, this is just illustrating that in no way is Colborne offensively out-performing Backlund, ESPECIALLY given such a simple thing like Zone Start and Finish. Once again, I am NOT an expert on advanced stats. People who are can tell me if I am cherry-picking stats here, or misinterpreting them, and can hopefully correct me if needed. Based only on my eyes, I prefer Backlund's game NOW. I think he is a more effective player, is a much faster player, and much more persistent. His offensive capabilities SEEM higher to me (seems to have more puck skills), but it is not exactly translating (though advanced metrics helps share some insight as to possibly why). He also has a much better shot than Colborne. However, I really think that Colborne could very well be a much more valuable piece moving forward. He seems to be developing, doesn't seem to have any particular weaknesses that can't be worked on, is playing much more aggressively now than he started off the season being, and just has that wonderful size. In the end, I hope they keep Backlund and trade Stajan. Though Stajan has been better in the last 2 seasons, he just isn't a long-term solution here. I don't think he is strong enough to shoulder the burden either on the top line. I would much rather have an exposed Backlund on the top line (who plays tough minutes and is generally a pretty good defensive presence) who still has possible room to further develop his game. I generally don't see this as a Colborne vs Backlund situation. It should be a Backlund vs Stajan situation if you ask me.