Quote:
Originally Posted by kehatch
A rough estimate is that you have about a 5% chance of getting an impact NHL player (not star) in those rounds.
|
Some back-of-the-napkin calculations:
Between 1996 and 2005, 1800 players were selected in rounds 4-9. Of those 239 (13%) went on to play 100 or more games in the NHL. Of those 239, exactly 100 (5.5% of 1800) have scored 100 or more points, and 10 (0.5%) have contributed more than 400 points.
Of these players, 19 (8% of 239, 1% of 1800) were goaltenders.
Two of the players were legitimate stars, Datsyuk and Zetterberg.
Beyond that I'm not doing the probabilities of drafting X kind of player, but there's the basic value of a 4th-9th round pick: every year you're reasonably likely to get a player of the quality of Chris Butler.