Quote:
Originally Posted by darthma
Not that I disagree with the spirit of the post, but the math is wrong. Each 'pick' is an independent event, so you can't add them. An independent event means that each pick is NOT dependent on the other. In other words, 10% chance of a NHL roster player for 6 picks != (not equal) to 60% chance.
Based on your basic number (10% chance that a pick turns into a roster player in the last four rounds), the chances of getting a roster player follows a binomial distribution (either he becomes a roster player or he doesn't).
Doing the math (yes, I'm a dork), the two scenarios kehatch presents are:
4 picks in the last 4 rounds:
Probability of getting 0 roster players = 65.61%
Probability of getting 1 roster player = 29.16%
Probability of getting 2 roster players = 4.86%
Probability of getting 3 roster players = 0.36%
Probability of getting 4 roster players = 0.01%
6 picks in the last 4 rounds:
Probability of getting 0 roster players = 53.14%
Probability of getting 1 roster player = 35.43%
Probability of getting 2 roster players = 9.84%
Probability of getting 3 roster players = 1.46%
Probability of getting 4 roster players = 0.12%
Probability of getting 5 roster players = 0.0054%
Probability of getting 6 roster players = 0.0001%
The most telling number is 100% - the probability of getting NO roster players (= probability of getting 1 OR MORE roster player). By adding two picks, you now have a 46.86% chance of getting a roster player, whereas with four picks you had a 34.39% chance of getting a roster player. That's an increase of ~15%.
Are those odds that you like? Are those odds that the management team likes?
So now you know... and knowing is half the battle.
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The point is that the chances of getting a player with later round picks isn't insignificant, and the more of them you have the better the chance of getting a roster player. But thanks for the stats quiz!
We acquired a goon who doesn't play very good hockey. It cost us a pick and as a rebuilding team we need to be stockpiling those not throwing them away. And perhaps most importantly we blew one of our remaining contracts. Assuming they are going to save three of them for the college guys that leaves us with only 1 more contract we can use.
None of it makes any sense except that in the Flames outdated thinking they need a goon in the AHL. Clearly they are scoring too much and winning too many games so they need to even things out by putting a liability on the roster.
But to be frank, I have spent too much time posting on a minor league transaction.