Quote:
Originally Posted by kehatch
First, I don't know who came up with a 1% chance. Maybe to develop into a star. But numerous sources have done the math on past drafts and two points are true and pertinent. First, there is almost no difference in success rates after the 3 round. Second, you have around a 10% chance of getting an NHL player in the 4 and later rounds. A rough estimate is that you have about a 5% chance of getting an impact NHL player (not star) in those rounds.
By default you get 4 picks in those rounds. They are cheap to acquire, so lets say you manage to add 2 more. You now have a 60% chance of getting an NHL player and a 30% chance of that player being an impact player. Compound that over a couple of drafts and you are probably going to end up with a decent player or two.
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Not that I disagree with the spirit of the post, but the math is wrong. Each 'pick' is an independent event, so you can't add them. An independent event means that each pick is NOT dependent on the other. In other words, 10% chance of a NHL roster player for 6 picks != (not equal) to 60% chance.
Based on your basic number (10% chance that a pick turns into a roster player in the last four rounds), the chances of getting a roster player follows a binomial distribution (either he becomes a roster player or he doesn't).
Doing the math (yes, I'm a dork), the two scenarios kehatch presents are:
4 picks in the last 4 rounds:
Probability of getting 0 roster players = 65.61%
Probability of getting 1 roster player = 29.16%
Probability of getting 2 roster players = 4.86%
Probability of getting 3 roster players = 0.36%
Probability of getting 4 roster players = 0.01%
6 picks in the last 4 rounds:
Probability of getting 0 roster players = 53.14%
Probability of getting 1 roster player = 35.43%
Probability of getting 2 roster players = 9.84%
Probability of getting 3 roster players = 1.46%
Probability of getting 4 roster players = 0.12%
Probability of getting 5 roster players = 0.0054%
Probability of getting 6 roster players = 0.0001%
The most telling number is 100% - the probability of getting NO roster players (= probability of getting 1 OR MORE roster player). By adding two picks, you now have a 46.86% chance of getting a roster player, whereas with four picks you had a 34.39% chance of getting a roster player. That's an increase of ~15%.
Are those odds that you like? Are those odds that the management team likes?
So now you know... and knowing is half the battle.