Quote:
Originally Posted by Gaskal
WTF. So less than 1 percent multiplied a few times. Ends up still being less than 1%. Big ####ing whoop. Let's stockpile an astronomically lopsided trade off, instead of playing our assets properly.
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Quote:
Originally Posted by strombad
Even with 5 picks in the 6th round you've only got 0.03 chance of picking someone relevant.
You don't "stockpile" lottery tickets do you?
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First, I don't know who came up with a 1% chance. Maybe to develop into a star. But numerous sources have done the math on past drafts and two points are true and pertinent. First, there is almost no difference in success rates after the 3 round. Second, you have around a 10% chance of getting an NHL player in the 4 and later rounds. A rough estimate is that you have about a 5% chance of getting an impact NHL player (not star) in those rounds.
By default you get 4 picks in those rounds. They are cheap to acquire, so lets say you manage to add 2 more. You now have a 60% chance of getting an NHL player and a 30% chance of that player being an impact player. Compound that over a couple of drafts and you are probably going to end up with a decent player or two.
It shows up on the roster. Brodie, Butler, B Jones, D Jones, McGrattan, O'Brien, Stempniak, Berra, Ramo, and Wideman were drafted in these round (Giordano, Glencross, and Smith weren't even drafted). Ferland, Knight, Ramage, Agostino, Arnold, Gaudreau, Culkin, Gordon, Roy, and Ortio are just some of the notable Flames prospects drafted in these rounds.
Calgary has been doing a better job of respecting these picks. They managed to stockpile some trading Comeau, Jackman, and Karlsson. They have trade some. But they were for Wideman, Knight, Galiardi, Colborne, and Russell. Those are all players that are probably going to be better then anyone you draft in those rounds.
But throwing a pick away on a goon and then defending it because it is 'just a 6-round pick' is short sighted. It doesn't help that MacDermid, even if he reaches his potential, is going to be the type of player that makes your team worse. These types of players do NOT defend anyone. More often then not they spend 4 minutes on the ice where we hope like crap we don't ice the puck or end up in our own zone. Good teams ice 4 competent lines. There is a reason why these guys don't see anytime in the playoff run and in the playoffs.
He also isn't a young Jackman. At least probably not. Jackman was a relevant 4-line NHLer for a few seasons. MacDermid has almost no hockey ability. It is very unlikely he is anything more then a 4 minute a night goon.
Not the end of the world. It is still a minor transaction. But it is a waste of a pick and the defense "it is just a 6-round pick" isn't a defense at all.