Quote:
Originally Posted by MarchHare
There's a flaw in your logic: if you're pro-rating Jagr's goals based on games missed because of lockouts, you have to do the same for the players ahead of him. Gretzky, Hull, Gartner, Yzerman, and Lemieux would also have higher goal totals if not for '94 and/or '04 lockouts
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Good point, however, the lockouts wouldn't have effected these other players as much as you might think. The 94 lockout is the only lockout to effect Gretzky and Gartner. A full 94 season would have seen Gretzky score an additional 7 goals. Not sure about Gartner as he only played 10 games in 94, but the following season he managed only 12 goals, so one could argue that he would not have done much more with the extra 34 games.
Messier would have scored an extra 9 goals in 94. It's difficult to determine if he would have played the 04/05 season as he retired in January 2006, but he scored 18 goals in each of his last 2 seasons, so continuing that trend, he only would have ended up with an extra 27 goals.
Yzerman would have gotten an extra 8 goals in 94 and would have averaged 16 goals in 04/05, for a total of 24 extra goals. Hull would have scored an extra 20 goals in 94. After the 03/04 season, Hull was a free agent. It seems unlikely that Detroit would have extended him had there been a season in 04/05, and he went on to play 5 games with the Coyotes in 2006 before retiring. Being generous, I would estimate that he would have scored another 20 goals had there been no lockout, giving him a total of 40 goals.
Finally you have Lemieux, who could have had as many as 26 extra goals in 94 if he would have been able to stay healthy, but it is difficult to imagine that he would have scored much more during the 04/05 season given that he only managed a total of 36 games and 8 goals throughout 03/04 and 05/06.
I think it is fair to assume that no one was effected by the lockouts more than Jagr, and all things being equal, he still would have had more goals than the above (other than Gretzky) had the lockouts never occurred.