Quote:
Originally Posted by MisterJoji
I know everyone loves Oiler misery, but don't get carried away. Yakupov is still worth more than a late 1st.
|
His upside is. His skill set is.
But IMO, what you are not considering is scenarios other than him achieving his full potential in the NHL.
As a simple example, consider a two-outcome scenario with a 50% chance he plays to his potential and a 50% chance he runs home to Russia.
You have to take his value in the first scenario (a high first + a prospect?) and multiply it by 50%, and then take his value in the 2nd scenario (a 3rd round pick?) and multiply that by 50%
Add those two up and that's his value - if you think there is a 50-50 chance of each.
Anyway, just an illustration, but that is why his value has been lowered. He is just as talented as he always was, but there are other possible outcomes to this that are less enticing.
As a GM, do you take that chance and throw a bunch of assets at him?
Or do you take those assets and use them for a safer bet?
The problem for a GM is that the risk/reward is skewed to the downside: if you're right, great - you get a really good player. But if you're wrong, you probably get fired.