I dunno, I just don't see it. I think there is a current surge in his popularity simply because he's a popular news item right now, and of course, a lot of the rabid supporters are just reacting angrily as they seem him being attacked. But a lot of that initial combative spirit often erodes over time. People just get tired, and they calm down and reassess.
I guess if they do vote him back in, they get what they deserve.
It's true that if he does leave, and comes back clean he has a very good chance to win, I don't deny that. But I'm not sure how likely that is. He seems bent on staying and definitely shows no desire to clean up or sober up. In fact, he looks like his own worst enemy right now. So poll numbers definitely could go down yet. He has another drunken outing (cause of all the pressure right now!) and does something dumb or pisses of the wrong people... there's a lot of ways he could torpedo himself.
And of course, on the opposite side of the spectrum of personal growth and vindication, there's still the very real possibility that he gets charged with something. This investigation ain't over by a long shot.
So I'm not sure. He could get re-elected for sure, especially if he does the right things. But to say it's 'likely' or that voters will put him back in as is, is a bit of a stretch for me.
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