In 2010 more people were unemployeed in this city than they are today. That allowed them to get out early to vote. A lot of those unemployed were the young vote which helped Nenshi get into office. I assume the turnout will improve post 5pm, but I don't think as many will vote as they did in 2010.
My general understanding is most do not see a viable alternative to Nenshi this year so that will lower the turnout (as most will just assume Nenshi will be reelected).
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