Quote:
Originally Posted by Tinordi
Just to address this point. The problem with results is that they're so heavily based on luck that if you focus on them you'll get a very skewed view of a player/team.
Advanced stats try to remove the luck factor as much as possible and focus on things that are in the players control.
As per Monahan's 30% shooting percentage, it's not high, it's simply very fortunate. The highest shooting percentages year in year out are only over 10%. Monahan WILL regress to the mean on his shooting percentage. What that percentage indicates is that in these first five games the bounces have been going his way. Like Baertschi's pass landing right on his blade instead of it the puck skipping on some bad Saddledome ice.
Now Monahan is making his own luck, he's finding open places, he's being productive. The puck isn't bouncing off his ass and into the net. But why you'd look at advanced stats is to understand just how much Monahan is influencing the play of the team.
|
I get that, and I find the stats around quality of competition and the like quite compelling. But I equally believe that if you focus too heavily on stats you miss the fact that players have different levels of skill and hockey IQ - something that gets sloughed off as 'making their own luck'. Otherwise you'd have to believe that every player has the same average chance to score on the average shot and that all shot opportunities are equal, something that is patently false.
More to the point, relax and enjoy the ride while it lasts.