While we're on the subject of advanced stats and Monahan, here's another analysis from Flames Nation:
http://flamesnation.ca/2013/10/11/se...d-with-caution
Quote:
Monahan may actually become that player at some point. But the journey to there from here is a long one with many twists and bumps in the road.....
Four games is a tiny sample size. And weird things happen in small numbers. Monahan's personal shooting percentage right now is 25%, or about double what you'd expect a competent goal scorer in the NHL to manage. His one-ice SH% (that rate at which all pucks have gone in the net) at even strength this year is a mind-boggling 22% - about 300% higher than the league average (8%) and about 100% higher than Sidney Crosby or a competent PP would manage.....
I'd suggest Flames fans also need to temper their expectations a bit, because the kid isn't going to score 102 points as a 19 year old rookie and there are going to be rough patches at some point, be it this year if he stays up, or next year when he makes the team full time for sure.....
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Some good points here - he's not going to maintain his 64 goal pace, who knew? Let's say he's merely average, according to these stats he still gets 21-32 goals, hello Calder. Maybe he only gets 15 - still pretty solid.
The last line kills me - does anyone here really think he's going to even break 50 points?
I respect the analysis but can do without the 'only we know the truth and the rest of are deluding yourselves' attitude.