Quote:
Originally Posted by devo22
exactly. Sure, you could find a Brodie or a Gaudreau in the 4th if you're lucky, but chances are you could also end up with a Nick Larson, Aki Seitsonen, Henrik Bjorklund, Hugo Carpentier, J.D. Watt, Kris Hogg or Jamie Tardif. All Flames 4th rounders in the last 10 years. If you think about it that way, I'll be more than happy to take Colborne and give him some time.
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Colborne is a 2008 draftee. So if we had a 2008 draftee that was unable to crack the team, would you keep him and hope he pans out or trade him for a 4th?
I think the fairer comparison for this trade is what percentage of kids, 5 years after being drafted, haven't yet cracked an NHL team but will still turn out to be good players? Compare that to your chance of finding a better player with a 4th round pick.
In your listed Flames draftees, 2 of 9 have a hope. Is the chance of finding a 5 year out reclamation project like Colborne more than 2 in 9? My gut feeling is that a fresh 4th round pick is a better bet than this type of reclamation project. Once we have a decent set of games in the Joe Colborne sample, I hope I'm very wrong.