Quote:
Originally Posted by DOOM
Yes, by the odds most players taken outside the top 2 rounds wont have an NHL career.
However, when people say a prospect is likely to bust/wont have an NHL career and play it off like fact is what's most annoying.
|
Well it IS likely. It may be annoying to you, but fact of the matter is we all HOPE Janko becomes a first line center, but the most LIKELY scenario is that he never amounts to anything. He was a late 1st round pick, predicted to be mid-late second round, in an average draft where even the players that were supposed to be selected around that time are probably multi-year projects, let alone going off the board.
Fact: Janko could develop into a #1 center
Fact: Janko most likely won't become anything close to what he was projected as (bust)
It's not up for debate whether or not it's a fact, it is. If moon thinks he is going to bust, no question, then he is simply playing the overwhelming odds. Plenty of scouts and people involved in player personnel believe Janko is more likely to be a big time bust, but they all admit his ceiling is high. You can have both. The Flames took a big risk that could have a big payoff, anyone could tell you that, but the reason it's a risk is that he likely won't amount to anything substantial.
I still think he will make some waves, personally. Would I have rather us use our original pick? Based on hindsight and seeing the players picked after our original pick, yeah, I would've. But Janko COULD make it, and we got Seiloff, which is a huge bonus.