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Old 09-24-2013, 01:10 PM   #381
Parallex
I believe in the Jays.
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by thymebalm View Post
Ok. Time for a bold prediction from watching the pre-season and training camp.

We will not be as bad as everyone thinks.

I know that everyone thinks that there is no way that the team will be competitive and is a shoe-in for a top-5 pick. But I find that laughable.

I know we've been told all summer that without Iggy, Kipper and Bouw we are screwed, but I have to lovingly disagree.

1) Kipper was BAD in his last season. I'm talking BAD.
http://blogs.thescore.com/nhl/2013/0...e-2013-season/

Any other goalie would have given us more wins than Kiprusoff last season. His save percentage at even strength was .873 last year. That's worse than replacement level NHL goaltending.

Let me be clear. Any other goalie is going to give us more wins. Even if Karri posts a .906 (which is probably a bottom end translation of his ~.920sv in the KHL.) it will be miles (and wins) ahead of Kiprusoff's year.

2) Jarome Iginla didn't drive the play North anymore.

Since 2010 Jarome slipped into being a passenger and not the driver despite playing 18~mins a night. By 2013 he was being regularly outchanced by his opposition.

Despite not having the same knack for the net as Iggy; Stemps, Mickis and Glencross are three players who come to mind who are much better than he at possessing the puck and driving play north. They will all have bigger roles this season (granted they may face tougher competition although even Iginla started to be buried in his final year to help him get favorable icetime)

Iginla was on the decline and the people he is being replaced by are either "apex" or "pre-apex". It will be nice to not have to watch Jarome as he "skates in to the offensive zone, holds up, curls to the boards, loses the puck" which he did to the point of laughter on some occasions.

Jarome Iginla will always be my favorite athlete but he was declining and I don't think losing him is going to be an issue as people are currently perceiving it.

3) JayBou will be replaced by committee.

You can't really complain about what Jay-BOU gave to the Flames while he was here. His contract ruined him expectations wise, but he is as steady a defender as you will find across the league. I do think, however, with the emergence of Brodie on the blueline and the offensive capabilities of Wideman, Bouw's icetime will be effectively spread out and those we may not have a player playing 27 every night, we will have his role effectively replaced.

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I agree with quite a bit of this. Particularily 1 & 2... 2012-2013 Iginla is actually fairly replacable (he was only on pace for 20ish goals last year) just giving his minutes (PP & EV) to the next best guys should replace a lot and replacing his growing weakness defensively ought to make up the difference. Kipper was really really really bad last year even low-average performance will be an immense improvement. Jbouw... that's where I disagree. He's not replaceable by committee (not that committee anyways) His PP time can be eaten by Russell and a nice chunk of his EV time can be eaten by a full-season expanded role for Brodie but that leaves a huge chunk that will be manned by a lesser player. Losing him hurts.

I would more predict that the Flames finish pretty close to where they finished last year (Drafting 5-7).
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