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Originally Posted by strombad
Uh, sure they did.
Lets just look at Stajan for example.
He played in the OHL.
Was 4 months older than Horvat.
125 GP at the time of his draft.
112 Points.
Less games, more points, same league, similar team.
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112 pts in 125 GP isn't a point per game pace. You were heralding the scoring pace of 19 year olds and comparing it to Horvats' 16 and 17 year old seasons. If Horvat isn't a point per game CHLer after his 19 year old season you'll have a point.
And of course you're ignoring other factors like the fact that pretty much every player on your list is undersized compared to Horvat which means translating their numbers from junior to the pros can be tougher.
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Listen, I'm not saying he's doomed to be a checking line guy, I'm saying that he's likely going to end up as a solid 3rd line center. His top end is probably similar to that of Jordan Staal, but that's top end. Can be reach his top end? Sure. Maybe.
Look at it this way, Monahan and Lindholm are seen as top six guys. 2nd liners with 1st line potential. Horvat, if he ever hits the 2nd line, is going to be the mash. He's not putting up points in any significant way, so get that out of your head, but he will add a good bump and grind to Vancouver.
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It's exceedingly premature to cap any top 10 pick's ceiling as a 3rd liner so soon after being drafted. If he doesn't have a better offensive season next year then you'll have a point, but until then it's just superficial speculation based on a pretty puny sample size. In fact, it could be argued that any underwhelming numbers he has are rooted in a poor first month or two of the season, as he put up 68 pts in his last 60 regular season and playoff games.
Ultimately, if the consensus among NHL scouts was that Horvat's ceiling was a good 3rd line center then he wouldn't have come close to the top 10 in a draft like this year's. So either the collective NHL scouting community is wrong or you are. Given that you don't seem to have really seen him play and your statistical methodology involves conflating numbers from 16-19 year olds' seasons across many leagues and eras, I know who I'm going to go with.
And keep in mind I'm talking about ceiling, not where I think he'll end up. It could certainly be argued that he'd most likely be a 3rd liner, but capping his ceiling or saying crap like "He's not putting up points in any significant way, so get that out of your head" based solely on a draft year stat line sample is exceptionally ignorant.