Quote:
Originally Posted by Nehkara
UPDATED AUGUST 20
Some thoughts on where the funding campaign may end up.
I'm going to assume an end date for the campaign of December 31st, 2014. The game should be in beta by then and on its way to release in early 2015, if the schedule remains the same as it is now.
There are 499 days between today and the above presumed end date.
The campaign currently sits at $15.736 million.
Since January 1st, 2013 the campaign has averaged ~$36800 per day.
The slowest period during the campaign was February 15th to April 25th where it averaged ~$10000/day.
The strongest period during the campaign was June 21st to July 10th where it averaged ~$200000/day
Campaign final total @ $40000/day = $35.7 million (If average daily funding continues to increase.)
Campaign final total @ $36800/day = $34.1 million (If average daily funding long-term is continued at this year's average to date.)
Campaign final total @ $30000/day = $30.7 million (Added because current average is roughly $30k/day)
Campaign final total @ $25000/day = $28.2 million (Added because current "low days" are about $25k)
Campaign final total @ $20000/day = $25.7 million (If average daily funding continues strongly but fades somewhat.)
Campaign final total @ $10000/day = $20.7 million (If average daily funding long-term drops significantly from current levels.)
Given the above I think it is almost certain that we will see a game that is completely crowdfunded. Should be interesting!
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I thought it would be worth mentioning that since the last time I edited this (15 days ago), the campaign's daily average for the year has increased from ~$36800 to ~$42850.
If the crowdfunding campaign continues to see these massive spikes each time a big milestone or announcement occurs, it is very likely that the game will reach its goal to be completely crowdfunded ($21 million) before the end of the year.
Not only that, but you have to imagine that once the Dogfighting module comes out at the end of the year and we have actual gameplay (multiplayer even), the campaign could just explode.
I find this all fascinating and I wonder if there is a large part of the gaming industry watching very closely. If you can raise what is likely to be (at the end of the campaign) $30-$50 million without a publisher or investors... it could be a new way forward for some developers.
Here are some updated numbers (484 days until expected campaign end):
Total @ $60,000/day = $46.81 million
Total @ $50,000/day = $41.97 million
Total @ $42,850/day = $38.51 million
Total @ $25,000/day = $29.87 million
Total @ $10,000/day = $22.61 million
We're now at the point where even if the funding falls flat on its face for the next 15 months (which seems inordinately unlikely), the campaign will still achieve its goal. It also looks reasonably likely that it could possibly DOUBLE its goal, especially with future spikes from module releases, ship variant sales, new ships, and beta.