Quote:
Originally Posted by puckluck2
Wait, wasn't it already said that the proof was a phone call which was traced between Assad and the chemical weapons unit? Pretty sure I read that so the idea of them not wanting to give up how they got their proof makes no sense.
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that's what I heard as well.
http://thecable.foreignpolicy.com/po...used_nerve_gas
I go back to the argument of motive, means and opportunity.
Motive - While it sounds illogical, I don't think you can apply the rational leader tag as we understanding leaders to a lot of the middle eastern regimes, especially the ones that have to be considered dictatorial. these guys are bought up in a system of total power, and maintaining total power. They are not students of modern day sociology.
Even if Asaad is winning this battle. The idea is future prevention of up rising and destroying the more radical rebel elements and stuffing their ability to easily recruit. He has pretty much demonstrated that he can kill thousands without lifting a finger and there is literally no place to hide from chemical weapons unless your well trained and equipped. Are you going to be willing to rebel if your whole town or neighborhood or family can be snuffed out like a injured dog?
Means - We know that Syria has both the weapons in terms of VX and Sarin, as well as choking agents like mustard gas in fairly large quantities. We also know that he has the means to deliver them via aircraft, long tube artillary, rockets and even mortars. We know that there was a call placed to one of the specialized weapons units in his army which points to the weapons being released and deployed. I have a issue with the idea that he didn't know, because like the American Nuclear arsenal, the controls on these weapons are incredibly tight. If this officer had fired them on his own or without Asaad's approval, he would have been quickly held up as the fall guy, and then he would have been shot and his family punished. If the Rebels had stolen chemical weapons, Asaad would have gone in front of the world press. Pointed out his weapons control, produced a list of exactly what was taken, and destroyed international support for the Rebels.
The argument that the rebels did it is shaky at best. While it would probably weaken the Syrian military if the Western or Arab states impossed a no fly zone, or put feet on the ground, or probably did specialized strikes on chemical weapons factory's and storage units and unlimbered missile and artillary strikes. The likely hood is that either the Western powers would want to keep Asaad in power as a sop against the radical members of the rebellion. Or they would install a friendly government until elections could be called. Again this harms the end game of the rebel groups.
Besides those weapons are probably in the field and it would be incredibly tough to track them all down since Syria has a ton of Russian supplied mobile artillery pieces.
Opportunity - There's no doubt that Asaad is having a decent war now, he's winning. In effect he's also pushed the rebels into pretty much defined areas of hiding including villages, and sections of town. Now that he has them where he wants them. He can easily kill them in a highly efficient manner with the push of the botton. He doesn't have to weaken his troop strength with drawn out city block battles. He can also use what can be classed as the ultimate terror weapon to intimidate and deny the rebel group its future members.
So the question is. Why haven't the American's disclosed their full evidence. America values its intelligence gathering above anything else. By disclosing the evidence it might give up methods and possible sources which will not only let America's enemies find a way to protect their information. But would allow Syria to create intelligence counter measures.