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Originally Posted by New Era
Yet the whole method is reliant on the classification of league strength for the measure to be considered accurate, no?
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The relative league strengths are empirically determined from observable data. They're not arbitrary assumptions.
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Originally Posted by New Era
Can we agree that a offensive philosophy is going to increase scoring and a defensive philosophy is going to decrease scoring?
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For a team, sure. For an individual, less clear (e.g. a less offensively-talented player might receive more minutes with a defensive-minded coach, and thus score more).
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Originally Posted by New Era
Can we agree that team philosophy is going to have some effect on a player's ability to produce points?
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Yes, but having the size and direction of the effect would be better.
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Originally Posted by New Era
Can we agree that a player's psychological strength is going to have an impact on his scoring?
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Yes. But it would do that both at the NHL level and at lower levels. Thus, NHL-E accounts for psychological strength.
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Originally Posted by New Era
Can we also agree that a player's psychological strength may be tested by the conditions under which his team is managed?
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Sure.
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Originally Posted by New Era
Now, can we agree that these factors, which are not measurable by NHL-E can have a significant affect on outcomes?
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No, because things like phychological strength are captured in NHL (though perhaps not weighted properly). But I will agree that there are factors not captured by NHL-E (that are reflected as "error" in the model). The thing is, we can tell how big factors captured by NHL-E are vs. factors not captured by NHL-E by looking at the predictive value of NHL-E. So, if NHL-E explains 75% of a player's career PPG, then all the factors it doesn't capture, combined, can only explain 25%. And if those other factors can't be used predictively, then their supposed effects might not really exist at all (and that 25% is just "luck", or factors that we haven't identified or figured out how to measure yet). The NHL-E to career PPG correlation is a strong one, which means that the factors that NHL-E doesn't capture must have relatively weak effects.