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Originally Posted by BACKCHECK!!!
This is not correct at all.
NHL-E is an attempt to estimate, based on your output this year, how you would produce in the NHL if you were promoted next year.
It's saying "The kids who score 50 points in League X, can generally be expected to score around 22 points or so if they jump to the NHL the following year."
For feeders leagues the NHL-E accounts for aging and development, because every player that contributed to the average got older and improved in the year between the two numbers being looked at.
It is also age-dependent. For example, there will be a different NHL-E for guys who are young up-and-comers transitioning to the NHL, as opposed to old guys who are washing out to a lower league.
Just because you don't understand what it's supposed to be used for, that doesn't make it useless.
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I know exactly what the stat is supposed to be used for and how it is applied. What I described is what really happens with it. There are too many variables and lack of controls to properly build a statistical model to project hockey. The stat is junk science.
Quote:
Originally Posted by BACKCHECK!!!
There is a huge evidence base for this, you just can't be bothered following the links to look at it.
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No, there is nothing to it. There is a reason why real statisticians do not bother trying to model complex systems like team sports. If they were really capable of generating a predictive model they would do so and take Vegas for every cent they have. There isn't enough reliability in these models so they have no true value. If there was any value to them teams would be firing their scouting staffs and hiring rooms full of stat nerds.