Quote:
Originally Posted by sureLoss
Just playing around with league equivalencies I calculated the equivalency of a player from Canadian HS to the NCAA to be 0.14.
The league equivalency of going from the OPJHL to the NCAA is 0.32 according to http://www.behindthenet.ca/blog/2008...or-junior.html.
I was able to find 8 players since 2010 that went from Canadian HS immediately to the OPJHL and determined the equivalency to be 0.45 with a standard deviation of 0.22. Small sample size I know, but its the largest number of players going from Can Hs to a NCAA feeder league I could find
Therefore by combining the Can HS to OPJHL equivlancey with the previously known OPJHL to NCAA equivlancey we get a Can HS to NCAA equivalence of 0.14.
Now given Jankowski's Can HS Pts/g of 1.39 and the Can Hs to NCAA equivalence, he should have only scored 6 to 7pts in 34 games in the NCAA.
So what can we conclude?
1. Jankowski's 18 pts in 34 games is much higher than it should be according to league equivalencies (almost 3 times higher). It implies has made a remarkable adjustment to a higher level of hockey or perhaps this season is just a fluke...
2. There is a flaw in league equivalencies (either in my methodology of calculating [i.e. small sample size] and using them or just with league equivalencies in general).
Anyways some food for thought, and I will leave you to draw your own conclusions. |
Apologies on quoting myself and seemingly talk to myself but I have thought of a different way to look at this and remove the small sample size problem I have in determining the equivalency between Canadian HS and OPJHL.
In the quoted text I calculated what Jankowski was predicted to get in the NCAA by league equivalences by using the equation:
(Canadian HS pts/g) * (league equivalence of Canadian HS to OPJHL) * (league equivalence of OPJHL to NCAA) * 34 = (predicted number of points that Jankowski is supposed to get in 34 games in the NCAA)
Just a reminder that league equivalency is the factor by which the average player will adjust their scoring stats when transferring from one league to another.
One of the problems I had was that in calculating the league equivalence of Canadian HS to OPJHL is that I only had a sample size of 8 players to draw upon, while the source I had for equivalence of OPJHL to NCAA had close to 100 players.
So then lets look at this a different way.
Let us assume that Jankowski had an average season (i.e. the points he put up were the average case for a 100 players that were making the jump from Canadian HS to the NCAA) and calculate the resulting league equivalence of Canadian HS to OPJHL by rearranging the previously stated equation:
(league equivalence of Canadian HS to OPJHL) = (number of points that Jankowski got in 34 games in the NCAA) / ((Canadian HS pts/g) *34*(league equivalence of OPJHL to NCAA))
You would calculate
(league equivalence of Canadian HS to OPJHL) = 18 /((1.39*34*0.32)) = 1.19
So if you argue that Jankowski had an average season for a player jumping from Canadian HS to the NCAA, you are then also arguing by the logic of league equivalencies that Canadian High School hockey league plays much higher quality hockey than Ontario Junior 'A' (also AJHL, BCHL, and SJHL as their equivalencies to the NCAA are similar to the OPJHL). This is not the general consensus on Canadian High School hockey.
If you argue that Jankowski had a below average season for a player in his situation then you are saying the league equivalence of the Canadian HS to OPJHL is even higher than 1.19 and therefore Canadian HS hockey is extremely strong compared to Junior 'A'.
Assuming there are no flaws in the logic of league equivalences, the data I have sourced is accurate and you believe that Canadian HS < Junior A then you must conclude that Jankowski overreached this season or he had an above average to great season for a player in his situation.
More food for thought.