Quote:
Originally Posted by dustygoon
The answer can always be found in math class.....
[Expected Value of player] = sum { ( [the UFA-replacement cap hit for a player's future potential for a particular season] - [expected cap hit at that potential for that season] ) x [probability of reaching that potential in that season] }
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fyp
BPA is the guy who will deliever the most total value above his contract(s). The reason guys can have positive expected value is because their ELCs are not market price, their 2nd contracts (non-arbitration) are not market price, and their RFA years are not market price.
A guy who is needs lots of development is unlikely to be the BPA, as he has fewer years to deliver value over his contract before he hits UFA.