Quote:
Originally Posted by Meers
Today's model for success with a complete rebuild is Chicago during the half decade from 02/03 to 07/08 when they missed the playoffs.
Ideally, I'd rather have Feaster looking to the Windy City rather than Calgary's neighbor to the North for a blueprint.
Accordingly, I think the pertinent question is not how the Flames' rebuild compares with the Oilers'. Rather the question should be whether the Flames are where the Blackhawks were four years into their rebuild?
When you look at how Chicago rebuilt from 02/03 to 07/08 and put in place the key players for it's 2010 Cup win, a few things become clear:
Players Drafted
Keith 02 - 54th
Seabrook 03 - 14th
Byfuglien 03 - 245th
Bolland 04 - 32nd
Bickell 04 - 41st
Brouwer 04 - 214th
Hjalmarsson 05 - 108th
Toews 06 - 3rd
Kane 07 - 1st
Players Acquired in Trades
Sharp 05/06
Versteeg 06/07
Havlat 06/07
Ladd 07/08
Free Agents
Niemi 08/09
Campbell 08/09
Hossa 09/10
Firstly, the Hawks' draft picks were the most vital element to their Cup success. But, aside from Toews and Kane, many of these players were not high draft picks. Chicago did very well with their drafting in the late first round and subsequent rounds to find key talent and role players. So scouting junior talent is key. Secondly, Chicago was active in the trade market and able to bring in talent via trades. Finally, top end free agents like Hossa and Campbell were added after the rebuild had been largely completed to push an already solid team over the top.
So, are the Flames where the Blackhawks were four years into their rebuild?
The answer, to my mind, is . . . probably not. I can't quite see Monahan being the next Toews. But, more importantly, I don't see a Norris calibre Keith/Seabrook-type blue line pairing slowly honing their craft on the Flames, or a serviceable monster like Byfuglien on the squad, or an emerging checking centre like Bolland developing, or a quality second-liner like Sharp having been brought aboard.
The Hawks managed to accumulate quite a bit of talent during their first four years wandering the non-playoff wilderness. The Flames, sadly squandered some of their years of suckage - and not having any first or second rounders in the 2010 draft certainly didn't help.
Ah well, as a famous American advice columnist once said, "It gets better."
(Unfortunately, that author also assumed that the advice recipient would be repeatedly sodomized for years on end . . . which, sadly, is how the next few seasons of Flames hockey are shaping up.)
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Well if the stars align at least our core is starting to shape up a bit. Here's what we've got so far:
Notes:
Ranking:
-A-90% chance of filling out role B-75% C-50% D-25%
-C's are only about a 50% chance, lots of these guys won't turn out.
-Bottom of the lineup players are graded more leniently because they are more likely to be able to play acceptably well in that role. (Cundari gets a B for bottom pairing but gets an F if he were to be slotted into the top pairing.)
Comparables:
I am not saying that any/all of our guys
will turn out to be players of kane/hossa/toews stature. I'm just saying that some of our guys could, if all goes perfectly, provide similar services to this team. (Hell, if the stars align then maybe some of our guys will turn out even better!)
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Beartschi[A](Hossa)-Monahan[B-](Toews)-Gaudreau[C-](Kane)*
Klimchuck[C+]-Janko[C]/Monahan[A]-Poirier[C+]/Gaudreau[B-]
Horak[B+]-Backlund[A]/Knight[B]-________
[4th line is easy to fill, plenty of prospects can reach this level. Bouma gets a B+ here though]
(One of Seiloff/Brodie /Wotherspoon)[C-]-___________
Brodie[A]-Wotherspoon[B+]/Seiloff[B-]
Cundari[B+]-Ramage/Breen[B]
Starter:Gillies[C+]
Back-up: Brossoit[B+]
*Gaudreau played on Monahan's right wing during the scrimmages. At the very least he's open to it.
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So that looks like a pretty good team on paper. The top defensive pairing, the second line and Gaudreau are all real question marks though. When you factor in that some prospects will fail it still doesn't look that bad aside from the gaping hole in our defenses top pairing, something this years pick should hopefully help. In addition to all that we still have plenty of NHL caliber prospects in our farm system:
Max Reinhart-(2nd line C/3rd line B+)
Markus Granlund-(2nd line C or bust)
Ken Agostino-(2nd line C-/3rd line B-)
Bill Arnold -(I personally don't know enough about this player for rankings to mean anything.)
Mark Cundari-(C- for top 4/B+ for bottom pairing)
Ben Hanowski-(C+ for 3rd line/B+ for fourth, thinks the game well which is worth a lot.)
Joni Ortio -(I don't really know this guy. No ranking)
Keegan Kanzig-(Wildcard. This guy is big and thinks the game well, two important things that can't be taught. He is mediocre at skating and has hands of stone, two important things that can be taught. I could see this guy surprise everyone and end up a solid top pairing guy. More likely he just ends up being a hulk on the bottom pairing. Defensemen take a long time to develop; It will be a while before what kind of player he is comes into focus.)
Greg Nemisz-(3rd/4th liner D. His window is closing.)
Some of these guys won't make it, some will. Players that make it from here are very valuable. They can a)be used to fill roster spots or b) be packaged in a trade to fill a roster spot above the line they play on. Two of these players and a late first got the Blues a top pairing guy for five years. They are very important assets and we actually seem to have a lot of them.
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Other assets:
We do still have guys on our roster with trade value. As various prospects begin to earn their place on the team it will allow management the luxury of trading our nhl vets for more assets.
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So are we anywhere close to where the Blackhawks were four years into their rebuild? If Gaudreau turns out well and one of Brodie/Sieloff/Wotherspoon blossom into a top pairing guy then I feel like we actually might be. Reason being that we already could have our Patrick Kane-light in Gaudreau! Next draft we take our top pairing defensemen with our high pick and continue to draft well in the later rounds like we have been over the past three drafts and we could have all the assets we need by next year! Any holes in the roster created by busting players could be filled by dealing our assets intelligently and any remaining holes (hopefully only 1-3) could be filled via free agency.
It will still take quite a while for all of these players to make the nhl and it will take even more time for them to become quality nhl players. We probably have 2 more high picks and maybe even one mid round pick to acquire before we're competitive again. If we continue to draft well in the later rounds then we may be set for success for quite a long time.
On the whole, not bad!