Quote:
Originally Posted by Tinordi
The chances then of picking the number 1 overall two years in a row would be:
.25 x .25 x .25 x .25 = 0.3% chance you're going to pick the first overall two years in a row.
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Ow. The wrong, it hurts.
There are 14 teams eligible for the draft lottery every year, and it is certain that one of them will win. That means that the
average chance of picking first overall, if you miss the playoffs twice running, is (1/14)^2 = 0.51%. (That assumes that you are equally likely to finish anywhere from 17th to 30th.)
If you're finishing in the bottom four each of those years, you have a much better than average chance of winning the lottery each time. Ergo, your overall chance of winning twice is greater than 0.51%.
You forgot to account for the odds that the team does NOT finish last overall, but wins the lottery anyway.
That said, New Era is even more out to lunch when he claims that the last-place team has a 75% chance of winning the lottery. That's not only wrong, you don't even have to do arithmetic to prove it.
*grumbles, goes away to find some ibuprofen*