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On the draft you have a 75% chance of winning the lottery too, which is 3 times better than your odds of losing. I'll take the 75% chance over your 25% any day.
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By my understanding if you finish last you have a 25% chance of winning the lottery.
So lets run the odds, lets say that it's a crap shoot over who actually finishes last between four teams. Lets give it equal odds to finish last at 25%.
The chances then of picking the number 1 overall two years in a row would be:
.25 x .25 x .25 x .25 = 0.3% chance you're going to pick the first overall two years in a row.
Ok, you say, maybe it's only a toss up between two teams, say the Flames and the worst team in the east? What're the odds of picking first overall twice then? 1.5%
I mean sure maybe we'll get lucky in the next two draft years and there wont be a consensus #1 guy, the top 3 prospects are more or less in the same ball park. That could be so. Lets take a look back and see where there isn't alot of differentiation between the #1 and #3 picks.
Starting in 2010 because we can evaluate them:
2010 Hall, Seguin, Gunbradson - Hall's the clear #1 guy here
2009 Tavares, Hedman, Duchene - Tavares clear
2008 Stamkos, Doughty, Bogosian - Stamkos
2007 Kane, JVR, Turris - Kane
2006 Johnson, Staal, Toews - Ok here's one
2005 Crosby, Ryan, Johnson - Yeah
2004 Ovechkin, Malkin, Barker - Interesting don't want to be third
2003 Fleury, Staal, Horton - Here's another one
2002 Nash, Lehtonen, Bouw - Nash is better IMO
2001 Kovalchuk, Spezza, Svitov - Close by Kovalchuk was the clear guy
The point is that the #1 pick is usually the best pick to have, as the Oilers have done in the past 3 years. Jury's still out on 2011 and 2012 so maybe they didn't get the best guys. But the odds would say that they have.