Quote:
Originally Posted by SuperMatt18
Any insight to how this works with the top 10 luckiest and 10 unluckiest. Guess is that the middle teams would tend to stay the same.
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10 Luckiest teams y-o-y points differential -52, -67, -52, -113
10 Unluckiest teams y-o-y point differential 96, 56, 104, 180
5 Luckiest teams y-o-y points differential -61, -39, -27, -74
5 Unluckiest teams y-o-y point differential 56, 30, 55, 138
Number of the 10 luckiest teams that had fewer points the next season y-o-y. 7, 8, 8, 8.
Number of the 10 unluckiest teams that had more points the next season y-oy. 7, 7*, 8, 8,
Number of the 5 luckiest teams that had fewer points the next season y-o-y. 5, 4, 4, 4.
Number of the 5 unluckiest teams that had more points the next season y-oy. 4, 3*, 4, 4,
* Edmonton had not change in points year-over-year.
So it appears if you just don't look at the ten middle teams then he is 80% for predicting if a team will be better or worse the following season. Those stats are great after 4 years.