Quote:
Originally Posted by New Era
Yeah, NHL-equivalent PPG is a farce stat. Ron Schremp, Dave Bolland and Alex Picard should have been superstars because of their junior exploits. Curtis Glencross, Rich Peverley and Vicktor Stalberg never should have translated to NHL players with scoring ability. Context is lost with many stats and NHL-equivalent PPG is one where context is everything.
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It's not a perfect stat, but it does predict things fairly well (despite your cherry-picked sample). Jankowski's NHL equivalent scoring isn't just slightly low, it's quite low. He has 18. Most of 2013's first round forwards are higher. Monahan had 33! Klimchuk and Poirier were at 26. And they're all younger than Jankowski.
For Jankowski to top out higher than any of those guys, and particularly to become a first line centre, he needs to have a ridiculously good development curve. His toolset makes him more likely to do it than most, but in my view, having the kind of development curve he needs is unlikely for anyone, even someone with size and skill.