Quote:
Originally Posted by SebC
NHL-equivalent PPG is a pretty good predictor of a prospect's ceiling, actually, and Jankowski's is not very good. I don't care how much weight he gains - until he starts scoring, he's not a top prospect. He might someday become a top 3 prospect in the system, but today he isn't.
That's what I get for skimming, but I'd still argue against Jankowski in the 3 spot. The choice becomes a bit murky then, but I'd actually take Wotherspoon.
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Yeah, NHL-equivalent PPG is a farce stat. Ron Schremp, Dave Bolland and Alex Picard should have been superstars because of their junior exploits. Curtis Glencross, Rich Peverley and Vicktor Stalberg never should have translated to NHL players with scoring ability. Context is lost with many stats and NHL-equivalent PPG is one where context is everything.
Jankowski was the youngest player from his draft, the youngest player in the league, jumped to a much tougher league, played for a team that was expected to be horrible, played out of position, and was still adjusting to his body after a huge growth spurt. These are all factors that NHL-equivalent PPG cannot properly quantify. Players on weak teams that play a very regimented team game are going to get crushed in this stat, while guys that play on powerhouse teams that have the freedom to play for points are going to be grossly over-rated. First year stats from any league are also a very poor predictor of any future success.
When I look at Jankowski's stats from last season I see a kid that was tied for 4th in scoring and was only six points from the team lead. This was done in 4 less games played and done against players 4 years his senior. He was 17 and the other guys leading the team were 21 year olds. The scoring was spread out across the team and Jankowski was one of the top scorers, especially in the final half of the season when the team was pushing for the playoffs. He bulked up, played at a higher level, improved every aspect of his game, and did not look out of place, all as the youngest player in his league. NHL-equivalent PPG does not account for any of this. Useless stat.