Quote:
Originally Posted by Textcritic
I think the J. Staal comparison is WAY off.
Monahan is pretty clearly a better player and a better prospect, and I think that it is highly unlikely that his career taps out at the younger-Staal's level. Take a look at their juniour stats: Monahan has played three years of juniour, has well surpassed the point/game plateau each year, and he was the best player on his team by an obscene margin in his draft year. Staal's best season was his draft year in which he registered a point/game exactly, and was the fourth-highest scoring player on a championship team, surrounded by talent. Monahan's success from last season was entirely self-manufactured. Staal had help.
I get the desire to temper expectations, but this is not the right way to go about it. Monahan should project to a 70–80 point top-line centre, with the possibility that he surpasses that as a franchise talent. An unlikely possibility, but even if he does not meet his potential (he has been most ferequently compared to Jonathan Toews and the OTHER Staal), he should still be expected to be better than a really good #2 centre.
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Monahan is also 11 months older than Staal was at the time they were each drafted, so Monahan's 17 year old season is a more apt comparison to Staal's pre-draft year.
And you need to keep in mind that he's still just a prospect. Saying that he's "highly unlikely" to top out at a level that would make him one of the most productive #6 overall draft picks in modern NHL history is a little much. Yeah it's a good draft, but 18 years olds are far from sure things. Here are the last bunch of #6 picks starting from 5 years ago. How many would you take over Jordan Staal:
Filatov
Gagner
Brassard
Brule
Montoya
Michalek
Upshall
M. Koivu
Hartnell
Finley
Fata
Tkaczuk
Devereaux
Kelly
There are usually about 10 centers in the league at any given time putting up 70+ points which means you're only getting maybe 1 or 2 of those guys out of even a good draft. All of MacKinnon, Barkov, Lindholm, and Monahan have the capability to get there, but you can't simply assume they will. Even a guy like Toews has only hit the 70 point mark once in his career so far.
Look at the 2003 draft. A boatload of excellent centers were taken yet only 2 of them (Staal and Getzlaf) have managed more than two 70 point seasons in the decade since.