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Originally Posted by Erick Estrada
Well Loubardias wanted the Flames to take Horvat at 6 so it just goes to show how opinions vary. Like I even said at the time I have nothing against Poirier but I feel that you have to use a value system with draft picks and if your list has a guy that is consensus 2nd round pick you should investigate trading down. For example the Flames could have used the 22 pick to get two 2nd round picks or a later 1st round pick and 2nd round pick, etc and still nab Poirier and Klimchuk while gaining say another 2nd round pick to get a guy like Petan as well. They did as much last year in trading down to pick Jankowski and recouping a 2nd round pick so I'm not sure why last year it wasn't a problem to take the risk and this year not. Maybe they really, really thought the Habs may take Poirier at 25 and if that's the case then I guess they did what they felt necessary. Heck maybe there were no trades to be made as with the internet and all these draft sites everything is so under the microscope and overanalyzed.
Overall Kent Wilson sums up my feelings of the Flames draft well which is that it was a good day but they didn't really get great value on the Bouwmeester/Iginla returns in using those picks on consensus 2nd round players. Time will tell of course but this organization isn't rich in positive draft history so it's hard to believe this July will be different as least on the surface when it seemed like there were some missed opportunities;
http://flamesnation.ca/2013/7/1/flam...draft-thoughts |
All I meant was that Peter spends a LOT of time watching junior level hockey (and even lower), so when he speaks, it is of first-hand knowledge. Pierre does not - just remembers stats and names, so when gets all butt-hurt when someone passes on his favorite prospect or who he says is an excellent fit, it is just worthless BS coming out of his mouth IMO. Peter would put way more legitimate insight into that panel on draft day.
As for not trading down at 22 - I think you just answered your own question there. Why did the Flames do it with Jankowski last year, but not with Poirier this year? Obviously because they were pretty sure where those guys would get picked based on intel. Yes, how you manage the draft can really add value to the organization by optimizing when you trade up, when you trade down, and when you pick your guys. Flames have been trading down for years. This year, they tried to trade up and couldn't. Was there really an opportunity to trade down without giving up the guy they wanted? Well, is Poirier > than Petan and another 2nd rounder (based on Petan being rumored being the last of the 4 invited to the Flames combine)? That is the real question.
Everyone is entitled to their own opinion. I was hoping to draft one of the blue-chip defencemen at 22 - but most of the ones I was hoping for were gone so quickly. I was really hoping for Morrissey. Was happy the Flames just went and got forwards. I respect Kent Wilson - I think the guy has a pretty good hockey brain - but with all do respect, we will just all have to wait to see how they all develop. I am really high on most of the picks - if not initially, after doing some more research and hearing the "Why's" as to why they picked that certain prospect. I don't find a fault with any of their picks actually. However, I doubt that Kent has had time to really analyze for himself (much less viewed the prospects himself) to really provide a solid opinion at this point. I am sure he will in the future though, but if he is basing his opinion through 'consensus' and 'value', then the basis is on very weak ground.
I just think too many people are fixated on the 'consensus list' myth, and as soon as you deviate from it you are going 'off the board'. The 'board' and the 'consensus' is 100% based on what the Flames scouts hammer out amongst each other after they spend loads of time viewing prospects and analyzing their work. Come draft day, that is when 30 teams follow their own boards, and their own consensus. What fans term consensus is the external lists like ISS, McKeens, Pronman, Hockey News, etc.. The most legitimate list you can find is McKenzie's list - and he would often be right on who was about to be selected. However, his lists is from 10 scouts? Something like that? The next 20 can really alter that 'consensus'.
Why did the Flames pass on Hunter, and take Emile? Because after all the viewings, analysis, interviews -
THEIR consensus was that Emile was the better prospect. It is as simple as that. Vancouver disagrees. Vancouver also has a pretty lousy track record in their drafting for a while. Also, FWIW, Detroit isn't a good drafting team OUTSIDE of Europe. NA drafted prospects are underwhelming, but their European scouting is top-notch. All their late-round gems that they get applauded for are because of the few really good European scouts. Them passing on Hunter doesn't make me feel 'better' - but the whole train of teams who also did do, so the 'consensus' was that Hunter has some real issues to his game - maybe character issues as rumored, or him being a perimeter player who is small, or whatever else. Fact is, he dropped according to the lists of NHL teams who spend millions combined - and it is their opinion that really matters. Put it that way, was Shinkaruk a real 'steal' (and keep in mind that there are teams with multiple selections who passed on him), or was he over-valued by external scouting services who are not really impacted by drafting a potential bust?
When you think of it that way, maybe Shinkaruk was the 'consensus pick' - the consensus pick for busting. Was Vancouver lucky? Were they 'smart' for picking him there? Perhaps they were the 'losers' in this draft for giving up Schneider to move up from 24 to 9, if that is all that ends up on the Canucks one day.
There are different ways to think about the draft and each selection. At the end of the day, a team must make its' picks, and what ISS, NHL Central Scouting, or any other organization that likes to make a draft ranking is basically meaningless EXCEPT to the fans and the media who are both impatient and want to see 'winners' and 'losers'. What matters is a team doing their own scouting, managing their own drafts for best value, and injecting their team with talent for the future.