Once you're outside the "lottery pick" guys, there's a ton of error bar on everyone. The bust potential is higher, but more importantly the "ends up as a depth player" potential is much higher. At this stage, it's really pretty impossible to say that Monahan or Horvat is a better prospect. Both have advantages over the other, both have areas to improve upon. Monahan could end up being a #1C at the NHL level and Horvat could be a fourth liner, or vice versa, and the odds of each aren't significantly different.
Basically Monahan is a slightly surer bet than Horvat with slightly higher upside. Hence he went a couple of picks earlier. But because there's so much margin of error, there's not that much to choose between them.
Now, had Vancouver done the smart thing and taken Nichushkin (who actually is a lottery pick quality talent) we'd be having a different discussion. They screwed the pooch on that one.
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