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Originally Posted by Flames Draft Watcher
The problem with some of the arguments that revolve around where guys like Bergeron, Weber, Chara, etc were drafted is that the % chance of landing such a player where they were drafted is ridiculously low. We can't rely on getting a #1 d-man or #1 centre in the 2nd or 3rd round. We can't even rely on getting an NHLer in those rounds.
The best chance to land top end talent remains the top 5-10. Yes elite players are drafted outside of that range but at a much lower frequency and you can't rely on it. It is a mistake to focus on the exceptions.
If we deal up we're getting a guy we think is more likely to pan out into a franchise player and he'll pan out most of the time. If we don't deal up we have more rolls of the dice but at a smaller likelihood of landing top line talent.
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The problem is that we don't have enough supporting cast players as of yet in order to drop a superstar into in order to build a contender. A lot of teams try to get their star players first and then the supporting cast after (see Edmonton, NYI, Columbus with Nash etc.), but usually the star's contracts restricts their abilities to surround them properly. We will suck next year and likely the year after enough that we should get a MacKinnon or Drouin type prospect or two, which if you add those guys onto the 3 that we should get this year, it will mean that we'll have a big start on having a solid all round team that could then be on the verge of contending if everything is done right.