Quote:
Originally Posted by Flames Draft Watcher
I'm not quite as anti-goalie in the 1st round as some people. It just has to be the right goalie. Defencemen and forwards busts quite regularly as well in the later 1st. If we could get a guy like Tukkka Rask in the late 1st I think we'd be pretty ecstatic.
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The problem is that, if past results show anything, not even the pros seem to know who the "right" goalie is. They frequently draft mediocre guys in the 1st round, and franchise goalies in the late rounds. Anyone who says they know who the right goalies are and who the wrong ones are is blowing hot air. They've proven over and over again that it's a giant crapshoot. Who's the last goalie who was considered a franchise goalie in his draft year, and actually lived up to, or exceeded, the hype? I can't think of one that is noticeably better than others in his draft class.
I don't blame the pros for not knowing. It's fricken hard to predict how someones going to be playing 5-8 years from now (remember, Quick and Rask only really emerged the last couple of years when they were in their mid 20s). In some ways it would be like drafting a 12-13 year old forward, and trying to predict how he'll play when he's 20.
And most of the guys they do draft, end up only emerging with their 2nd/3rd team anyway. I mean it's nice that Tukka Rask was drafted in the 1st round and all...but look who he's helping to win now...not the team that actually drafted him. And all it took to get him was another crapshoot goaltender.
I actually think that the Flames current approach is the way to go... acquire a bunch of goalies in their early/mid 20s on the cheap and see if any emerge. Why waste a high draft pick and half a decade of development time getting to the same place, when you can get someone else to do it for you.