I think the only way that there is a new large McMahon-replacement stadium built is as part of a winning large international athletics competition. Olympics, or more likely Commonwealth or Pan-Am games. Just to clarify, it would be built only after the bid is won, not built in advance with the hopes of winning. It would also not be built on the current McMahon Stadium site, which, after demolishing, the U of C would build upon or sell to development interests. Until then, you will only see renovations.
Ivor Wynne Stadium in Hamilton was built in 1928 (in advance of hosting the 1930 British Empire, now known as 'Commonwealth,' Games) and lasted until Toronto-Hamilton region won the 2015 Pan-Am Games. Edmonton's Commonwealth Stadium was built as part of the winning bid to host the 1978 Commonwealth Games. BC Place in Vancouver was built as part of the 1986 Expo and then renovated as part of the 2010 Olympics.
As the situation currently stands, a new stadium is hard to justify at this juncture over other options. There is lots of room to renovate the current McMahon Stadium and the gains as compared to cost for doing so are pretty good. Given the stature of the current primary tenants (a CFL club and a CIS football team) and the number of dates they play, it would be very hard to see returns on a new stadium versus the option of just standing pat and/or renovating. It's a classic case of the current situation being just good enough or being incrementally improved upon with relatively-cheap renovations.
It's not that there isn't something to the argument of a new stadium, because I don't think it's such a bad idea to be laughed out of a room. It's that, in the absence of some strong, and perhaps unlikely, external force (winning a major international sporting event or landing an MLS team) it is cost prohibitive when weighed against other viable renovation options. I don't think there will be an MLS team coming, and to me that leaves the only way an new stadium gets built is with the assistance of public funds, and I think the only way that public funds would be justified is if Calgary is hosting an Olympics, Commonwealth Games or Pan-Am Games.
The good news is that I think a Commonwealth Games or Pan-Am Games is relatively easy to win if there is an appetite to do so. The Pan-Am Games are on a rotation of North America => South America => Central America. That would mean the next ones Calgary could hope to host are in 2027 and then in 2039. I personally think a US city will step up to host the 2027 ones.
The Commonwealth Games are a both a bigger event and could be won sooner I think. The rotation isn't as clearly defined and they have shown a trend of going to developing nations much like the Olympics. Still, Canada hasn't hosted since Victoria in 1994. Toronto is chasing the Olympics, Vancouver just hosted an Olympics and I don't think you could sell a bid on an international sporting event to Montrealers after the 1976 Olympics debacle. I think a bid for the 2026 or 2030 Games is possible.
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