[Pointman]

Originally Posted by CASe333

Something doesn't seem right with his math. Maybe he articulated it wrong in his article or made a typo but his calculations don't seem correct. I've highlighted the paragraph that doesn't make sense. Nonetheless, still the biggest choke job I've had the pleasure of watching.

Spoiler!

In order for you to have a chance at a loss as agonizing as that suffered by the Maple Leafs last night, you need to lose a series in a seventh game. What are the chances that your season ends in a seventh game? In any given series, the probability is 0.15625. What we need to know is the probability of making the playoffs and losing in G7 in R1, R2, R3 and R4. It’s easy enough: R1 is (16/30 teams in the playoffs)*(0.15625 chance of losing in G7). R2 is (16/30 teams in the playoffs)*(0.5 chance of making it past R1)*(0.15625 chance of losing in G7). And so on. Add it all up, and you come up with a probability that your season ends in a G7 of 0.15625.

I have re-done this part on myself, and he's perfectly right (unless I'm wrong myself too). You are confused by the fact that a figure 1 (a chance for any series to go into game 7) is equal to figure 2 (a chance for a team to get eliminated in game 7 in round 1,2,3 or 4). However, it's no typo and no mistake, those figures are indeed equal.

R1 = (16/30)*0.15625
R2 = (16/30)*0.15625 / 2
R3 = (16/30)*0.15625 / 4
R4 = (16/30)*0.15625 / 8

R1 + R2 + R3 + R4 = 0.15625