Calgarypuck Forums - The Unofficial Calgary Flames Fan Community - View Single Post

Rhettzky · 05-08-2013, 10:29 AM

I felt kind of bad for calling your post out but then providing nothing of value so I did a bit of research to try and add some value.

Acccording to THIS article, the peak age of an NHL hockey player is 25 and the peak range is about 23-26 years old. So if we use this range we could start looking at drafts from 7 years ago to evaluate the first round, which puts us at around the 2006 entry draft to look at players that are 25 years old right now. So here’s a breadown of draft years from 1997 to 2006.

BST = Busts
REG = Regular Players
STA = Stars
PLA = Regular Players and Stars Combined
Brackets = Stats for top ten of the draft year

1997: 12 BST, 5 REG, 7 STA: PLA = 50%, STA = 30%
(2 BST, 3 REG, 5 STA: PLA = 80%, STA = 50%)
1998: 7 BST, 13 REG, 7 STA: PLA = 74%, STA = 26%
(1 BST, 5 REG, 4 STA: PLA = 90%, STA = 40%)
1999: 16 BST, 8 REG, 4 STA: PLA = 43%, STA = 14%
(4 BST, 4 REG, 3 STA: PLA = 70%, STA = 30%)
2000: 13 BST, 10 REG, 7 STA: PLA = 57%, STA = 23%
(4 BST, 3 REG, 3 STA: PLA = 60%, STA = 30%)
2001: 12 BST, 10 REG, 8 STA: PLA = 60%, STA = 27%
(4 BST, 1 REG, 5 STA: PLA = 60%, STA = 50%)
2002: 8 BST, 13 REG, 9 STA: PLA = 73%. STA = 30%
(1 BST, 3 REG, 6 STA: PLA = 90%, STA = 60%)
2003: 4 BST, 9 REG, 17 STA: PLA = 87%, STA = 57%
(0 BST, 2 REG, 8 STA: PLA = 100%, STA = 80%)
2004: 10 BST, 10 REG, 10 STA: PLA = 67%, STA = 33%
(3 BST, 3 REG, 4 STA: PLA = 70%, STA = 40%)
2005: 12 BST, 9 REG, 9 STA: PLA = 60%, STA = 30%
(2 BST, 3 REG, 5 STA: PLA = 80%, STA = 50%)
2006: 10 BST, 6 REG, 14 STA: PLA = 67%, STA = 47%
(0 BST, 3 REG, 7 STA: PLA = 100%, STA = 70%)

Total: 104 BST, 93 REG, 92 STA: PLA = 64%, STA = 32%
(21 BST, 30 REG, 49 STA: PLA = 79%, STA = 49%)

Telling a bust from a regular was easy for the most part but making a call of regular vs star was harder in some cases and a little subjective. But for 95% of the picks it was pretty cut and dry. Check Hockey DB for the different draft years.

There is a drop off when picking in the top ten compared to the rest of the draft, but where the huge drop comes in is from picking a star player. In the top ten you have an average of a 49% chance to get a star player whereas, in the bottom 20 picks in the draft that chance drops to 23%.

05-08-2013, 10:29 AM	#16
Rhettzky Franchise Player Join Date: Feb 2006 Location: Section 222 Exp:	I felt kind of bad for calling your post out but then providing nothing of value so I did a bit of research to try and add some value. Acccording to THIS article, the peak age of an NHL hockey player is 25 and the peak range is about 23-26 years old. So if we use this range we could start looking at drafts from 7 years ago to evaluate the first round, which puts us at around the 2006 entry draft to look at players that are 25 years old right now. So here’s a breadown of draft years from 1997 to 2006. BST = Busts REG = Regular Players STA = Stars PLA = Regular Players and Stars Combined Brackets = Stats for top ten of the draft year 1997: 12 BST, 5 REG, 7 STA: PLA = 50%, STA = 30% (2 BST, 3 REG, 5 STA: PLA = 80%, STA = 50%) 1998: 7 BST, 13 REG, 7 STA: PLA = 74%, STA = 26% (1 BST, 5 REG, 4 STA: PLA = 90%, STA = 40%) 1999: 16 BST, 8 REG, 4 STA: PLA = 43%, STA = 14% (4 BST, 4 REG, 3 STA: PLA = 70%, STA = 30%) 2000: 13 BST, 10 REG, 7 STA: PLA = 57%, STA = 23% (4 BST, 3 REG, 3 STA: PLA = 60%, STA = 30%) 2001: 12 BST, 10 REG, 8 STA: PLA = 60%, STA = 27% (4 BST, 1 REG, 5 STA: PLA = 60%, STA = 50%) 2002: 8 BST, 13 REG, 9 STA: PLA = 73%. STA = 30% (1 BST, 3 REG, 6 STA: PLA = 90%, STA = 60%) 2003: 4 BST, 9 REG, 17 STA: PLA = 87%, STA = 57% (0 BST, 2 REG, 8 STA: PLA = 100%, STA = 80%) 2004: 10 BST, 10 REG, 10 STA: PLA = 67%, STA = 33% (3 BST, 3 REG, 4 STA: PLA = 70%, STA = 40%) 2005: 12 BST, 9 REG, 9 STA: PLA = 60%, STA = 30% (2 BST, 3 REG, 5 STA: PLA = 80%, STA = 50%) 2006: 10 BST, 6 REG, 14 STA: PLA = 67%, STA = 47% (0 BST, 3 REG, 7 STA: PLA = 100%, STA = 70%) Total: 104 BST, 93 REG, 92 STA: PLA = 64%, STA = 32% (21 BST, 30 REG, 49 STA: PLA = 79%, STA = 49%) Telling a bust from a regular was easy for the most part but making a call of regular vs star was harder in some cases and a little subjective. But for 95% of the picks it was pretty cut and dry. Check Hockey DB for the different draft years. There is a drop off when picking in the top ten compared to the rest of the draft, but where the huge drop comes in is from picking a star player. In the top ten you have an average of a 49% chance to get a star player whereas, in the bottom 20 picks in the draft that chance drops to 23%. __________________ Go Flames Go!!