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"It's science that's in kind of flux right now," said Chris Landsea, science and operations officer at the National Hurricane Center, talking by the pool at the Rosen Centre on a sunny day that made global warming seem like a dream.

"We're trying to learn, and everyone's just trying to get the answer about what's going on. . . . It's not one of these esoteric questions that doesn't have any impact."

William Gray of Colorado State, who with his young colleague Philip Klotzbach issues perhaps the most famous seasonal forecast, reiterated Friday his view that not only is the cycle business as usual, but so is the warming trend.

"This is natural stuff," he said. "We shouldn't try to blame humans for all of this."

Georgia Institute of Technology's Judith Curry countered with her own slides, saying that warming is increasing storms' intensity in a way that natural variability can't explain.
"This is a great challenge to try to understand," she said.

http://www.floridatoday.com/apps/pbc...WS04/604150319