Yep, I agree with pretty much everything you are saying. My point though is that although you might have to wait 5-6 years to make a 100% accurate assessment you can still make a pretty good assessment (ie. > 80% confidence rating) for recent years based on our limited data. Of the players you listed I would guess 3-6 more players might make it. So averaged with the first years which have little error the amount of error overall isn't that large.
I will definitely admit 2011 and 2012 are still completely crapshoots and I thought about not including them because of this...
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