Quote:
Originally Posted by CASe333
Take a look at the 2009 draft. I'd be curious how many players you think could still surprise as either a regular or star player? Sure there are going to be a couple late bloomers but I think the error at this point would only be 3-6 players so less than 10-20%.
To give you a better idea of how I used some judgement calls along with the criteria I previously explained here is my 2009 list of players who have played enough for me to consider as regulars (where bold = star). Let me hear your criticisms:
1). John Tavares
2). Victor Hedman
3). Matt Duchene
4). Evander Kane
5). Brayden Schenn
6). Oliver Ekman-Larsson
7). Nazem Kadri
10). Magnus Paajarvi-Svensson
11). Ryan Ellis
13). Zack Kassian
14). Dmitri Kulikov
16). Nick Leddy
19). Chris Kreider
23). Tim Erixon
24). Marcus Johansson
25). Jordan Caron
26). Kyle Palmieri
|
Sure but like I said, up until this season you would have had Kadri in the bust realm based on this and he was drafted 4 drafts ago. Plus going back to 2009 represents 40% of your sample size. And even then, the kids from that draft are all only 22 years old. So it's much too early to tell what their career is going to look like.
Brayden Schenn, for instance, you have listed as a regular and a non-star but he has only played 1.5 NHL seasons and has only gotten better. So you can't say where his output curve is because you've only seen two points on it, but they do point up for now.
8) Scott Glennie - Only 2 full pro seasons under his belt 51pts in 100 AHL games.
9) Jared Cowen - This D-man played 82 games (17 points) with the Sens last year and was sidelined by an injury this year that forced him to miss the entire season. Even still he returned at the tail end of the season and has played 2 post season games with the Sens this year.
12) Calvin de Haan - Had a decent start to his pro career in the AHL but was injured early this year and missed the season.
15) Peter Holland - Had a great couple of seasons in the AHL and played half the season for the ducks this year garnering 5 points in his first 21 NHL games.
17) David Rundblad - Has played good in the AHL and has been getting a few chances with the Coyotes.
18) Louis Leblanc - Only 2 pro seasons so far. Not great numbers but too early to tell.
20) Jacob Josefson - Has been between the AHL and NJ Devils for the last 3 years.
21) John Moore - Has played most of this season and is currently playing with the Rangers in the playoffs.
22) Jordan Schroeder - AHL numbers have been steadily climbing and broke into the NHL just this year with 31 games and 9 pts.
27) Philippe Paradis - Has been all over the place and kind of seems like an agitator based purely on his stats.
28) Dylan Olsen - Point totals have been steadily climbing in the AHL but nothing impressive so far.
29) Carter Ashton - First full pro season was last year and has okay AHL numbers but a terrible debut with the Leafs last season.
30) Simon Despres - Played most of the season with the Penguins this year and has played in the NHL playoffs this year.
So out of the 13 players that don't make the cut you have 8 defensemen (out of 12 overall) and 3 players that are playing in the playoff this year. Plus most of the guys you left off stayed an additional year in the minor leagues and only have 2 full pro seasons in so far.
I'm not going to say that they are all going to be full blown regulars because they probably won't but, like I said before, they are only 22 years old. IMO, that's too young to base such a large portion of your sample size on.