Quote:
Originally Posted by Rhettzky
Those number are pretty interesting but its too early to call it on the last five to six years and for defenseman and goalies it might be even longer. For example Kadri just broke out and he was drafted in 2009, based on your criteria he would have been considered a bust until this season. Corey Schneider was drafted in 2004 and til now has less than 100GP. So even that crop is still developing. Turris was drafted in 2007 and is only 23 but looking pretty good as well but doesn't meet the 0.5ppg.
So I'd think you would have to go back a full ten seasons to make an assessment. That far back you would be evaluating 28 year olds who are just hitting prime and could make a more accurate assessment of the draft class.
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Yes, I do agree with most everything you are saying here. I do admit to using a much more flexible criteria for recent years and for goalies which results in more judgement calls (higher error) rather than assessments based solely on data. For example for goalies, despite playing only around 100 games thus far I do consider Rask and Schneider to be star players and Bernier who has only played ~60gp to be a "regular". Of course though there is a good chance Bernier might still turn out to be a star goalie too.
The first 5 years of the decade is pretty easy and I don't think there would be many arguments on how I classified players. It does definitely get a lot harder in the last few years but I still think you can make a pretty fair assessment up until and even including 2009. Kadri turns out to be an excellent example. Based on my criteria he definitely would be considered a regular player at this point since he played the full season. In his first full season (albeit shortened) since he scored at a 0.92ppg pace I also consider him to be a super star. Certainly this is a stretch at this point but I think making projections based on a limited amount of data like this is fair for assessing recent years.
Take a look at the 2009 draft. I'd be curious how many players you think could still surprise as either a regular or star player? Sure there are going to be a couple late bloomers but I think the error at this point would only be 3-6 players so less than 10-20%.
To give you a better idea of how I used some judgement calls along with the criteria I previously explained here is my 2009 list of players who have played enough for me to consider as regulars (where bold = star). Let me hear your criticisms: